| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29939 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29939 |
| A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification | |
| Michael D. Bauer; Eric T. Swanson | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-04-18 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the relevance of these monetary policy surprises as instruments, especially for estimating the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks. For example, monetary policy surprises are correlated with macroeconomic and financial data that is publicly available prior to the FOMC announcement. We address these concerns in two ways: First, we expand the set of monetary policy announcements to include speeches by the Fed Chair, which doubles the number and importance of announcements; Second, we explain the predictability of the monetary policy surprises in terms of the “Fed response to news” channel of Bauer and Swanson (2021) and account for it by orthogonalizing the surprises with respect to macroeconomic and financial data that pre-date the announcement. Our subsequent reassessment of the effects of monetary policy yields two key results: First, estimates of the high-frequency effects on asset prices are largely unchanged; Second, estimates of the effects on the macroeconomy are substantially larger and more significant than what previous studies using high-frequency data have typically found. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29939 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587613 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael D. Bauer,Eric T. Swanson. A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29939.pdf（716KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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