| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29950 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29950 |
| Additive Growth | |
| Thomas Philippon | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-04-18 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Growth theory is based on the assumption of exponential total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Across countries and time periods I find that TFP growth is actually linear. The additive growth model, unlike the exponential one, provides useful long-term forecasts for TFP. For the distant past the model suggests piecewise linear evolutions where the size of TFP increments changes in the late 1600’s, the early 1800’s, and around 1930. For the distant future the model predicts ever increasing increments in standards of living but with falling real interest rates and growth rates that converge to zero. The model suggests stable TFP growth in the US, but a TFP slowdown in the Euro area since the late 1990s. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; History ; Macroeconomic History ; Development and Growth ; Development ; Innovation and R& ; D ; Growth and Productivity |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29950 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587624 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thomas Philippon. Additive Growth. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29950.pdf（698KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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