| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29970 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29970 |
| Causal Effects of Countercyclical Interest Rates: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard | |
| Kris James Mitchener; Gonçalo Alves Pina | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-04-25 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We estimate the causal impact of countercyclical interest rates on macroeconomic outcomes in open economies. To identify countercyclical interest rates, we construct a new database of short-term interest rates, principal exports, and international commodity prices for 40 economies from 1870 to 1913. This era of capital mobility, nominal anchors, specialization and trade integration, exposed economies to multiple exogenous demand-side shocks. Specialization and trade integration subjected economies to a “commodity lottery” in the form of price fluctuations in world markets. Capital mobility and a currency peg exposed them to interest-rate movements originating in the U.K., the largest economy and linchpin of the classical gold standard. We identify (i) positive effects of commodity-export prices on real GDP and the domestic price level and (ii) negative effects of exogenous changes in short-term interest rates on the same variables. We then show that countercyclical interest rates, defined relative to export-price shocks, stabilized both output and the domestic price level. This stabilization was more effective for the price level than for output. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy ; International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29970 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587644 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kris James Mitchener,Gonçalo Alves Pina. Causal Effects of Countercyclical Interest Rates: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29970.pdf（1196KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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