| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30026 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30026 |
| Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers | |
| Ozge Akinci; Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan; Albert Queralto | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-05-09 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Foreign investors’ changing appetite for risk-taking have been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of UIP premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these risk sentiment changes transmit across borders, we propose a two-country macroeconomic framework. Our model features cross-border holdings of risky assets by U.S. financial intermediaries who operate under financial frictions, and who act as global intermediaries in that they take on foreign asset risk. In this setup, an exogenous increase in U.S.-specific uncertainty, modeled as higher volatility in U.S. assets, leads to higher risk premia in both countries. This occurs because higher uncertainty leads to deleveraging pressure on U.S. intermediaries, triggering higher global risk premia and lower global asset values. Moreover, when U.S. uncertainty rises, the exchange rate in the foreign country vis-à-vis the dollar depreciates, capital flows out of the foreign country, and the UIP premium increases in the foreign country and decreases in the U.S., as in the data. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30026 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587699 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ozge Akinci,Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan,Albert Queralto. Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30026.pdf（4208KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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