| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30043 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30043 |
| The Welfare Implications of Carbon Price Certainty | |
| Joseph E. Aldy; Sarah C. Armitage | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-05-16 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Experiences in real-world pollution markets suggest that firms make persistent errors in forecasting allowance and credit prices that inform their investment decisions. The residual uncertainty characterizing allowance and credit trading means that pollution markets may fail to deliver cost-effective abatement. This contrasts with price-based policies under which firms make investments that equate marginal abatement cost to an emission tax. We incorporate the additional cost of forecast errors under quantity-based programs into a standard Weitzman-style prices versus quantities framework. We distinguish between individual firms’ uncertainty over competitors’ private information and systemic uncertainty over future cost shocks. We show that a welfare-maximizing regulator would favor price instruments in response to the prospect of firm-specific forecast errors under quantity instruments, ceteris paribus, and the relative benefit of price instruments increases with forecast error variance. We discuss the role of policy design, such as incorporating price collars, in mitigating cost-inefficiencies from price forecast errors. |
| 主题 | Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30043 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587717 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joseph E. Aldy,Sarah C. Armitage. The Welfare Implications of Carbon Price Certainty. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30043.pdf（1129KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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