| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30071 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30071 |
| Idiosyncrasy as a Leading Indicator | |
| Randall Morck; Bernard Yeung; Lu Y. Zhang | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-05-23 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Disequilibrating macro shocks affect different firms' prospects differently, increasing idiosyncratic variation in forward-looking stock returns before affecting economic growth. Consistent with most such shocks from 1947 to 2020 enhancing productivity, increased idiosyncratic stock return variation forecasts next-quarter real GDP growth, industrial production growth, and consumption growth both in-sample and out-of-sample. These effects persist after controlling for other leading economic indicators. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets ; Behavioral Finance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30071 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587745 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Randall Morck,Bernard Yeung,Lu Y. Zhang. Idiosyncrasy as a Leading Indicator. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30071.pdf（926KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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