| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30074 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30074 |
| The Labor Market Impacts of Technological Change: From Unbridled Enthusiasm to Qualified Optimism to Vast Uncertainty | |
| David Autor | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-05-30 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This review considers the evolution of economic thinking on the relationship between digital technology and inequality across four decades, encompassing four related but intellectually distinct paradigms, which I refer to as the education race, the task polarization model, the automation-reinstatement race, and the era of Artificial Intelligence uncertainty. The nuance of economic understanding has improved across these epochs. Yet, traditional economic optimism about the beneficent effects of technology for productivity and welfare has eroded as understanding has advanced. Given this intellectual trajectory, it would be natural to forecast an even darker horizon ahead. I refrain from doing so because forecasting the “consequences” of technological change treats the future as a fate to be divined rather than an expedition to be undertaken. I conclude by discussing opportunities and challenges that we collectively face in shaping this future. |
| 主题 | Labor Economics ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Development and Growth ; Innovation and R& ; D |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30074 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587748 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David Autor. The Labor Market Impacts of Technological Change: From Unbridled Enthusiasm to Qualified Optimism to Vast Uncertainty. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30074.pdf（1304KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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