| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30126 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30126 |
| Accelerating Vaccine Innovation for Emerging Infectious Diseases via Parallel Discovery | |
| Joseph Barberio; Jacob Becraft; Zied Ben Chaouch; Dimitris Bertsimas; Tasuku Kitada; Michael Lingzhi Li; Andrew W. Lo; Kevin Shi; Qingyang Xu | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-06-13 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyze the financial performance of a hypothetical portfolio of 120 mRNA vaccine candidates in the preclinical stage targeting 11 emerging infectious diseases. We calibrate the simulation parameters with input from domain experts in mRNA technology and an extensive literature review. We find that the portfolio generates an average annualized return on investment of –6.0% per annum and a net present value of –$9.5 billion, despite the scientific advantages of mRNA technology and the financial benefits of diversification. Clinical trial costs account for 94% of the total investment, with manufacturing costs accounting for only 6%. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the most important factor determining financial performance is the price per dose, while the increased probability of success due to mRNA technology, adjusting the size of the portfolio, and the possibility of conducting human challenge trials do not significantly improve financial performance. These results underscore that if the goal is to create a sustainable business model and robust global vaccine ecosystem, continued collaboration between government agencies and the private sector is likely to be necessary. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Financial Markets ; Financial Institutions ; Corporate Finance ; Public Economics ; Taxation ; Public Goods ; National Fiscal Issues ; Subnational Fiscal Issues ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30126 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587798 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joseph Barberio,Jacob Becraft,Zied Ben Chaouch,et al. Accelerating Vaccine Innovation for Emerging Infectious Diseases via Parallel Discovery. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30126.pdf（719KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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