| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30134 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30134 |
| Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics | |
| Mark Gertler; Christopher K. Huckfeldt; Antonella Trigari | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-06-13 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We revisit the role of temporary layoffs in the business cycle, motivated by their unprecedented surge during the pandemic recession. We first measure the contribution of temporary layoffs to unemployment dynamics over the period 1979 to the present. While many have emphasized a stabilizing effect due to recall hiring, we quantify an important destabilizing effect due to “loss-of-recall”, whereby workers in temporary-layoff unemployment lose their job permanently and do so at higher rates in recessions. We then develop a quantitative model that allows for endogenous flows of workers across employment and both temporary-layoff and jobless unemployment. The model captures well pre-pandemic unemployment dynamics and shows how loss-of-recall enhances the recessionary contribution of temporary layoffs. We also show that with some modification the model can capture the pandemic recession. We then use our structural model to show that the Paycheck Protection Program generated significant employment gains. It did so in part by significantly reducing loss-of-recall. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30134 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587806 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mark Gertler,Christopher K. Huckfeldt,Antonella Trigari. Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30134.pdf（1703KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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