G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w30247
来源IDWorking Paper 30247
A New Way of Forecasting Recessions
Edward E. Leamer
发表日期2022-07-18
出版年2022
语种英语
摘要This paper proposes a new way of displaying and analyzing macroeconomic time series to form recession forecasts. The proposed data displays contain the last three years of each expansion. These allow observers to see for themselves what is different about the last year before recession. Based on a statistical model, the most recent data are then probabilistically inserted into these images where the recent data are most similar to the historical data. This amounts to a forecast. The traditional probit model used to forecast recessions inappropriately treats every observation as a separate experiment. This new method deals with these intra-correlation issues. The one variable that is causing a recession alarm is inflation. The unemployment rate is also alarming if the covid-19 data are omitted. The slope of the yield curve, the three-month Treasury yield, and housing starts are all two or three years from the end of the expansion. A probit model that conducts a “horse race” among these five variables reveals it is the bond market variables that best predict recessions. This leaves the Fed under control, but the 1970s data suggests it takes a recession to combat high inflation.
主题Other ; History of Economic Thought ; Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; COVID-19
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w30247
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587919
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Edward E. Leamer. A New Way of Forecasting Recessions. 2022.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
w30247.pdf(1160KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Edward E. Leamer]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Edward E. Leamer]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Edward E. Leamer]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: w30247.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。