| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30250 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30250 |
| Expecting Floods: Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implications | |
| Ruixue Jia; Xiao Ma; Victoria Wenxin Xie | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-07-18 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Flood events and flood risk have been increasing in the past few decades and have important consequences for the economy. Using county-level and ZIP-code-level data from the United States during 1998–2018, we document that (1) increased flood risk has a large negative impact on firm entry, employment, and output in the long run; and (2) flood events reduce output in the short run while their impact on firm entry and employment is limited. Motivated by these findings, we construct a spatial equilibrium model to characterize how flood risk shapes firms’ location choices and workers’ employment, which we use to estimate the aggregate impact of increased flood risk on the economy. We find that flood risk reduced U.S. aggregate output by 0.52% in 2018, 80% of which stemmed from expectation effects and 20% from direct damages. We also apply our model to study the distributional consequences and forecast the impact of future changes in flood risk. Our results highlight the importance of considering the adjustment of firms and workers in response to risk in evaluating the consequences of natural disasters. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Globalization and International Relations ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Regional Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30250 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587922 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ruixue Jia,Xiao Ma,Victoria Wenxin Xie. Expecting Floods: Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implications. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30250.pdf（18637KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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