| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w30328
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 30328
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| Fiscal Histories |
| John H. Cochrane
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| 发表日期 | 2022-08-08
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| 出版年 | 2022
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of real primary surpluses. Monetary policy remains important. The central bank can set an interest rate target, which determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the present value of surpluses drives unexpected inflation. I use fiscal theory to interpret historical episodes, including the rise and fall of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, the long quiet zero bound of the 2010s, and the reemergence of inflation in 2021, as well as to analyze the gold standard, currency pegs, the ends of hyperinflations, currency crashes, and the success of inflation targets. Going forward, fiscal theory warns that inflation will have to be tamed by coordinated monetary and fiscal policy. I thank Erik Hurst, Ed Nelson, Nina Pavcnik, and Timothy Taylor for helpful comments. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; Money and Interest Rates
; Monetary Policy
; Fiscal Policy
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30328
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/588001
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
John H. Cochrane. Fiscal Histories. 2022.
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文件名：
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w30328.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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