| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30333 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30333 |
| Noisy Foresight | |
| Anujit Chakraborty; Chad W. Kendall | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-08-08 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Rational agents must perform backwards induction by thinking contingently about future states and actions, but failures of backwards induction and contingent reasoning are ubiquitous. How do boundedly-rational agents make decisions when they fail to correctly forecast actions in the future? We construct an individual decision-making experiment to collect a rich dataset in which subjects must reason only about their own future actions. We demonstrate substantial mistakes relative to the rational benchmark, and use the rich dataset to estimate several possible models of boundedly-rational foresight. We find that a model in which subjects expect to make more mistakes when the payoff consequences of their future actions are more similar best explains behavior. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30333 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/588005 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Anujit Chakraborty,Chad W. Kendall. Noisy Foresight. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30333.pdf（2414KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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