G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w30345
来源IDWorking Paper 30345
Overconfidence and Technology Adoption in Health Care
Diego A. Comin; Jonathan S. Skinner; Douglas O. Staiger
发表日期2022-08-15
出版年2022
语种英语
摘要Variation in technology adoption is a key driver of differences in productivity. Previous studies sought to explain variations in technology adoption by heterogeneity in profitability, costs of adoption, or other factors. Less is known about how adoption is affected by bias in the perceived skill to implement the technology. We develop a Bayesian framework in which the use of the technology depends on perceived skill, while the outcomes from using it depend on actual skill. We study the determinants of adoption in the case of implantable cardiac defibrillators (ICDs) for which we document large differences across hospitals in the rate of adoption between 2002-2006, and a strong reversal from 2006-2013. We find that perception bias explains two-thirds of the cross-hospital variation in ICD use. A dynamic version of the model with learning about bias predicts accurately the subsequent decline in ICD use between 2006-2013. These results suggest an important role for misperception in explaining the wide variation in the adoption of new technologies.
主题Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; Development and Growth ; Innovation and R& ; D
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w30345
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/588018
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GB/T 7714
Diego A. Comin,Jonathan S. Skinner,Douglas O. Staiger. Overconfidence and Technology Adoption in Health Care. 2022.
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