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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w30353
来源IDWorking Paper 30353
Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about Covid
Pedro Bordalo; Giovanni Burro; Katherine B. Coffman; Nicola Gennaioli; Andrei Shleifer
发表日期2022-08-15
出版年2022
语种英语
摘要How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? A 2020 US survey of beliefs about the lethality of Covid reveals that the elderly underestimate, and the young overestimate, their own risks, and that people with more health adversities are more pessimistic, even for others. A model in which people selectively recall frequent and similar past experiences, including from other domains, and use them to imagine (simulate) the novel risk, explains our findings. An experience increases perceived risk if it makes that risk easier to imagine, but decreases it by interfering with recall of experiences that fuel imagination. The model yields new predictions on how non-Covid experiences shape beliefs about Covid, for which we find empirical support. These findings cannot be explained by conventional experience effects, and highlight memory mechanisms shaping which experiences are recalled and how they are used to form beliefs.
主题Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; COVID-19
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w30353
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/588026
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Pedro Bordalo,Giovanni Burro,Katherine B. Coffman,et al. Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about Covid. 2022.
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