| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30356 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30356 |
| Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics | |
| Pedro Bordalo; Nicola Gennaioli; Andrei Shleifer | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-08-15 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges posed by the rational expectations revolution, most importantly the idea that economic agents are forward-looking. Second, belief overreaction can account for many long-standing empirical puzzles in macro and finance, which emphasize the extreme volatility and boom-bust dynamics of key time series, such as stock prices, credit, and investment. Third, overreaction relies on psychology and is disciplined by survey data on expectations. This suggests that relaxing the assumption of rational expectations is a promising strategy, helps theory and evidence go together, and offers a unified view of a great deal of data. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30356 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/588029 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pedro Bordalo,Nicola Gennaioli,Andrei Shleifer. Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30356.pdf（378KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
