| 来源类型 | Journal Article |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| Ice Sheet Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Structured Expert Judgment | |
| Jonathan L. Bamber; Michael Oppenheimer; Robert E. Kopp; Willy P. Aspinall; Roger Cooke | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-05-20 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Future sea level rise (SLR) poses serious threats to the viability of coastal communities, but continues to be challenging to project using deterministic modeling approaches. Nonetheless, adaptation strategies urgently require quantification of future SLR uncertainties, particularly upper-end estimates. Structured expert judgement (SEJ) has proved a valuable approach for similar problems. Our findings, using SEJ, produce probability distributions with long upper tails that are influenced by interdependencies between processes and ice sheets. We find that a global total SLR exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenario. This is more than twice the upper value put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Fifth Assessment Report. |
| 主题 | Risk Analysis and Uncertainty,Adaptation and Resilience |
| URL | https://www.rff.org/publications/journal-articles/ice-sheet-contributions-future-sea-level-rise-structured-expert-judgment/ |
| 来源智库 | Resources for the Future (United States) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/588193 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jonathan L. Bamber,Michael Oppenheimer,Robert E. Kopp,et al. Ice Sheet Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Structured Expert Judgment. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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