全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The General Equilibrium Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy in China: A Multi-Model Comparison

G2TT

来源类型	Journal Article
规范类型	论文
	The General Equilibrium Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy in China: A Multi-Model Comparison
	Jing Cao; Hancheng Dai; Shantong Li; Chaoyi Guo; Mun Ho; Wenjia Cai; Jianwu He; Hai Huang; Jifeng Li; Yu Liu; Haoqi Qian; Can Wang; Libo Wu; Xiliang Zhangj
发表日期	2021-07-01
出版年	2021
语种	英语
摘要	We conduct a multi-model comparison of a carbon tax policy in China to examine how different models simulate the impacts in both near-term 2020, medium-term 2030, and distant future 2050. Though Top-down computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been applied frequently on climate or other environmental/energy policies to assess emission reduction, energy use and economy-wide general equilibrium outcomes in China, the results often vary greatly across models, making it challenging to derive policies. We compare 8 China CGE models with different characteristics to examine how they estimate the effects of a plausible range of carbon tax scenarios – low, medium and high carbon taxes.. To make them comparable we impose the same population growth, the same GDP growth path and world energy price shocks. We find that the 2030 NDC target for China are easily met in all models, but the 2060 carbon neutrality goal cannot be achieved even with our highest carbon tax rates. Through this carbon tax comparison, we find all 8 CGE models differ substantially in terms of impacts on the macroeconomy, aggregate prices, energy use and carbon reductions, as well as industry level output and price effects. We discuss the reasons for the divergent simulation results including differences in model structure, substitution parameters, baseline renewable penetration and methods of revenue recycling.
URL	https://www.rff.org/publications/journal-articles/the-general-equilibrium-impacts-of-carbon-tax-policy-in-china-a-multi-model-comparison/
来源智库	Resources for the Future (United States)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/588461
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jing Cao,Hancheng Dai,Shantong Li,et al. The General Equilibrium Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy in China: A Multi-Model Comparison. 2021.