全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The GDP-Temperature Relationship: Implications for Climate Change Damages

G2TT

来源类型	Journal Article in Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
规范类型	论文
	The GDP-Temperature Relationship: Implications for Climate Change Damages
	Richard G. Newell; Brian Prest; Steven Sexton
发表日期	2021-07-08
出处	Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
出版年	2021
语种	英语
摘要	Econometric models of temperature impacts on GDP are increasingly used to inform global warming damage assessments. But theory does not prescribe estimable forms of this relationship. By estimating 800 plausible specifications of the temperature-GDP relationship, we demonstrate that a wide variety of models are statistically indistinguishable in their out-of-sample performance, including models that exclude any temperature effect. This full set of models, however, implies a wide range of climate change impacts by 2100, yielding considerable model uncertainty. The uncertainty is greatest for models that specify effects of temperature on GDP growth that accumulate over time; the 95% confidence interval that accounts for both sampling and model uncertainty across the best-performing models ranges from 84% GDP losses to 359% gains. Models of GDP levels effects yield a much narrower distribution of GDP impacts centered around 1–3% losses, consistent with damage functions of major integrated assessment models. Further, models that incorporate lagged temperature effects are indicative of impacts on GDP levels rather than GDP growth. We identify statistically significant marginal effects of temperature on poor country GDP and agricultural production, but not rich country GDP, non-agricultural production, or GDP growth.,This article is the final version of the working paper linked below.
主题	Data and Decision Tools
URL	https://www.rff.org/publications/journal-articles/the-gdp-temperature-relationship-implications-for-climate-change-damages/
来源智库	Resources for the Future (United States)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/588462
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Richard G. Newell,Brian Prest,Steven Sexton. The GDP-Temperature Relationship: Implications for Climate Change Damages. 2021.