Gateway to Think Tanks
来源类型 | Reports |
规范类型 | 报告 |
The political economy of climate-related financial disclosure - E3G | |
Shane Tomlinson | |
发表日期 | 2018-05-03 |
出版年 | 2018 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | E3G has published a report on the political economy of climate-related financial disclosure in four target countries: UK, Germany, USA and Brazil. In these countries, the finance and investment landscape has been analysed across economic and political systems, as well as their external projection. Purpose of this reportThe Paris Agreement marked a watershed moment for tackling climate change. Post-Paris there has been a shift in focus from securing an international political agreement to implementing the low carbon transition. The political economy choices made around implementation of the transition will create clear winners and losers and represents one of the biggest challenges to achieving a well below 2oC future. While huge efforts have been invested in the technical analysis of the transition, to date very little attention has been given to political economy analysis. This report aims to address this gap with respect to implementing the recommendations from the Taskforce on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) by providing case studies in four key countries: The United Kingdom; Germany; The United States of America and Brazil. The political economy of financeThe finance sector is deeply entangled in the politics of decarbonisation. Finance sectors tend to be a mature aspect of most countries’ economies – in contrast to new and rapidly growing sectors, such as digital and renewable energy. However, the role of climate change in finance in relatively new. This creates opportunities for innovation and competitive advantage, but finance institutions are also deeply entangled with supporting high carbon sectors. In many countries, large multi-national incumbents dominate the finance sector and will need to evolve to deal with climate issues. New entrants from the Fintech sector could lead to disruptive change, although to date their impact has been relatively limited. Given the strong integration of finance across other systems within a country, analysing the politics of the finance system in isolation misses important linkages. It is therefore crucial to embed finance analysis in a broader context of the overall politics of decarbonisation. In particular, public-private finance dynamics can play a crucial role and vary markedly across different countries. As shown in Box 1 below, E3G’s Political Economy Mapping Methodology (PEMM) framework enables consistent comparison across different countries to examine the role of finance in terms of its economic significance, political weight and external projection. Mapping the political economy of financePolitical Economy Mapping Methodology (PEMM) is an analytical tool developed by E3G to assess threats and opportunities to countries presented by the low carbon transition. The three-dimensional assessment of national conditions, political system and external projection helps to determine what constructs a country’s core national interest and identify key national and international interventions which could help to increase domestic climate ambition and enable progress on the low carbon transition. The PEMM takes an iterative approach and combines hard analytical data, intelligence gathering, in-country testing and informed judgement. For the purposes of this report, the PEMM has been further developed to include an assessment of a country’s finance and investment landscape. The new methodology aims to understand how developed the finance system is within the economy; the key political actors involved and how the system is projected externally. As illustrated below, this is based on selected indicators, such as contribution to GDP and country credit rating, as well as broader research areas which require qualitative research and intelligence gathering, including the characteristics of public and private financing and governance mechanisms on climate-related disclosure. This information adds to the overall assessment of a country’s alignment with TCFD recommendations and the level of support for a low carbon transition. Figure 1. PEMM Assessment of Finance & Investment Conditions Country case studies: Key findingsBy applying E3G’s Political Economy Mapping Methodology (PEMM) to these four key countries, we have identified initial conclusions and insights on taking forward climate- related financial disclosures. This analysis represents a first step in creating a broader political economy analysis for these issues. Further work will be necessary both to deepen the assessments and to broaden results to cover more countries. Nonetheless from the political economy mapping conducted in these case studies a number of key dynamics emerge as regards to furthering the implementation of climate-related financial disclosures: United KingdomDeep divisions over Brexit dominate the political economy landscape in the UK. Securing future competitive advantage is the primary concern for most sectors. To the extent that climate change is viewed as supporting this agenda the UK will remain a global champion. However, pressure to secure new trade agreements with countries, such as the United States, could lead to a lowering of standards and risk a race to the bottom. Thus, while the UK is currently broadly supportive of climate-related financial disclosures, it is probably best characterised as a ‘distracted friend’:
Figure 2. UK PEMM Three-Dimensional Assessment GermanyFollowing Germany’s 2017 general elections, the country experienced six months of prolonged party negotiations and failed attempts to form a government. A grand coalition government was eventually formed in early 2018, reducing political uncertainty but also exposing new political divides and growing polarisation. Germany is a champion of action on climate change globally, though it has a very conservative finance sector. Its primary political focus in finance is on Eurozone stability and associated reforms. This can lead to Germany being less progressive on climate disclosure issues internationally than it is on many other aspects of the climate agenda. As a result, Germany could be characterised as an ‘uncertain friend’ regarding TCFD implementation: The finance sector in Germany is less influential politically than in either the UK or the US. Industrial sectors strongly linked to national identity, such as automobiles and manufacturing, have the most significant political economy weight. If TCFD was perceived to be increasing the cost of capital for these industries, it would lead to a strong political backlash;
Figure 3. Germany PEMM Three-Dimensional Assessment United StatesThe election of President Trump in the United States has led to considerable volatility and deep division within the country’s national conditions, particularly on the energy transition, energy security and public goods. It has also created a more polarised political system, which is increasingly divided on the low carbon transition. The shift to an “America First” foreign policy and the decision to withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Change Agreement has also had a strongly negative impact on its external projection and positioning, despite progressive action taken by individual US states and non-state actors. The US is a leader on global finance, though considering its tendency to limit regulation it would make it difficult for the US to advocate and carry the message around TCFD implementation. As such, it would be characterised as a ‘divided actor’ with strong forces pushing in different directions:
Figure 4. USA PEMM Three-Dimensional Assessment BrazilEconomic development and growth in Brazil has stalled alongside the nation’s most severe economic recession and high political instability resulting from one of the world’s largest anti- corruption investigations into political and business leaders. The focus on economic recovery has led to renewed interest and foreign investment in offshore oil and gas resources, creating national conditions and a political system that strongly oppose a low carbon transition. It has also elevated the importance of Brazil’s high carbon assets in international trade, leading to greater divergence between Brazilian foreign policy and climate diplomacy. Despite the economic and political weight of Brazil’s finance system, both nationally and regionally, the increasing role of public finance and Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) into the most polluting sectors could create conditions where stronger disclosure requirements lead to the displacement of carbon-intensive financial assets out of the more transparent private sector into the less transparent public sector. In this context, Brazil would be characterised as ‘a lever not worth pulling’:
Figure 5. Brazil PEMM Three-Dimensional Assessment Download the full report |
URL | https://www.e3g.org/publications/the-political-economy-of-climate-related-financial-disclosure/ |
来源智库 | Third Generation Environmentalism (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/590715 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shane Tomlinson. The political economy of climate-related financial disclosure - E3G. 2018. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
E3G_Political_Econom(2808KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Shane Tomlinson]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Shane Tomlinson]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Shane Tomlinson]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。