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Here, we highlight the work of E3G to map the political economy of cooling in a warming world. Sustainable cooling is an integral component of achieving the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, delivering on the Sustainable Development Goals and the UNFCCC Paris Agreement. This work was funded by the Kigali Cooling Efficiency Program. 

Contents

1. E3G Political Economy Mapping Methodology (PEMM)
2. National Conditions: what underpins the sustainable cooling transition?
3. Political System: who supports a sustainable cooling transition?
4. External Projection: how can cooling support foreign policy and climate diplomacy priorities?
5. Routes to Impact: what are the multiple pathways to net zero cooling?
6. Cool Resources Library

Sustainable cooling is an often overlooked but nonetheless essential part of net zero transition. Cooling emissions – from air conditioning and refrigeration – are estimated to be 10% of human-caused global emissions. This is broken down into direct emissions from refrigerant leakage – mostly F-gases which can have 10,000 times the warming potential of CO2 – and indirect emissions that result from the electricity generated to power cooling equipment and systems. Direct emissions are responsible for 20% of global emissions, while indirect emissions are responsible for the remaining 80%. This means, even with 100% renewable power, cooling equipment dominating the market today will still produce emissions from leakage of high global warming potential refrigerants during operation, maintenance, and disposal. Successful mitigation of emissions from cooling refrigerants alone could reduce future warming by up to 0.4° C up to 2100. 

Cooling stresses our energy systems contributing 20% of global electricity demand in buildings and more than 50% of peak demand in hot climates. In 2018, cooling energy load connected to the grid globally surpassed that year’s record–setting additions of solar generation capacity. As temperatures and incomes increase and with record urbanization, cooling’s share of electricity demand is set to rise, second only to electric motors, fuelling the need for more generation capacity and prolonging the life of fossil power plants. According to a 2018 IEA report, demand for space cooling alone could triple to 6,200 TWh/year by 2050 equivalent to all electricity demand in the United States and Germany in 2018. 

Cooling is not a luxury. At present, Sustainable Energy for All has identified more than 1 billion people across 54 countries who are at high risk due to their lack of access to cooling. Compounding this, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that at 1.5°C of warming, 2.3 billion people – more than a quarter of the world’s population – could be highly vulnerable to heat risk. Meeting the needs of those who can afford cooling would see an increase from 3.6bn to 9.5bn appliances in use across space cooling, stationary refrigeration, and mobile cooling sectors by 2050. However, this does not tell the whole story. Meeting everyone’s cooling needs would see a further 4.5bn appliances in use by 2050.  

A full spectrum of sustainable cooling solutions is needed. Globally, as climate impacts become more frequent and more intense, more people will be exposed and vulnerable to heat impacts. Alongside the highest efficiency equipment, solutions that avoid mechanical cooling where possible, using passive cooling or alternative technology, will be critical to meet cooling needs for all sustainably.