Climate change is increasingly perceived by world leaders as a top-tier geopolitical issue, with far-reaching implications for the future of the global economy, international cooperation and foreign security.
As COP26 President Alok Sharma has stated, the “golden thread” of climate action weaves through every international gathering in 2021. A clear understanding of the wider geopolitical picture is therefore essential for successful climate diplomacy this year.
This ‘Geopolitical Snapshot’ is a tool that breaks down the geopolitical landscape into the core elements that are essential to the context of global climate action.By focusing on the factors that are crucial for climate action, this tool provides a concise framework for thinking through the position of climate diplomacy with respect to the wider geopolitical context.
For a comprehensive explanation of the colour coding for each indicator, please see the methodology. This Snapshot is taken with less than 30 days to go until COP26 and shortly ahead of the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings and the G20 Leaders’ Summit. It is an update since the last Snapshot taken in April 2021.
Key takeaways
Despite some recent signs of progress, insufficient cooperation on COVID-19 and global recovery has sustained tense geopolitical relations and an uneven global economic context. Throughout Q2/Q3, developing countries have continued to signal frustration with slow progress by wealthier nations to take sufficient action on vaccine equity and global recovery through the G7, G20 and other multilateral spaces. Since the UN General Assembly, commitments to reallocate Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and the joint US-EU commitment to vaccinate 70% of the globe by September 2022 have signalled emerging progress. However, the delivery of these initiatives will fall largely in 2022. The consequence for climate action is insufficient financial firepower and fiscal space to support developing countries in their climate transition which continues to limit countries’ confidence to raise climate ambition ahead of COP26.
Whilst multilateral spaces remain open as prominent platforms for major powers – as evidenced by both the US and China using UNGA as a venue for climate announcements – fragmented bilateral or plurilateral approaches are dominating multilateral activity, creating new diplomatic challenges. From AUKUS to Afghanistan, Western powers have shown a hesitancy towards reasserting geopolitical power in multilateral contexts. The US has consistently prioritised bilateral approaches over multilateral avenues in its climate diplomacy, too. Announcements on development cooperation at UNGA hinted at further fragmentation: Biden reiterated his commitment to the Build Back Better World initiative, whilst Xi announced a ‘Global Development Initiative’, days after the EU revealed its own plans for the Global Gateway Initiative. Without multilateral coordination these pluralistic initiatives miss the opportunity to build confidence for higher climate ambition.
Despite this context, climate change has continued to serve as a ‘golden thread’ of cooperation, standing out as a remarkably distinct area of sustained high-level international diplomatic engagement. Throughout Q2/Q3, leaders have taken more decisive action to put climate at the heart of key multilateral and plurilateral processes including the G7, G20 and at UNGA. This has supported delivery of tangible (if limited) climate outcomes that have helped build some momentum towards COP26. Climate remains a core area of open dialogue between the US, EU and China.
As a result, there is potential political space for a high ambition outcome at COP26 that sets an acceleration pathway to close the gaps to the Paris Agreement goals in the early 2020s, as vocally called for from climate vulnerable country groupings. Such an outcome would cement the role of climate cooperation in sustaining faith in multilateralism, establish confidence in climate cooperation as a key lever in easing geopolitical rivalry, and help restore trust in relations between developing and developed countries. At the same time, the current global energy crisis which has seen sharp spikes in energy prices worldwide represents a potential wildcard for COP26 that could either make long-term decisions on climate action more domestically unpalatable and see an uptick in fossil fuel use this winter or reinforce the narrative around the benefits of a diversified energy portfolio for building economic resilience.
A high level of ambition at the G20 Rome Summit on coal, net zero and 1.5C would signal strong willingness to revisit ambition for a 1.5C pathway at COP26. An ‘acceleration’ outcome at COP26 that can close the gaps to 1.5C has yet to receive vocal enthusiasm from developing country major emitters, especially China and India. However, with increasing progress on addressing climate vulnerable priorities on the $100bn through the US commitment to double climate finance and the Germany-Canada co-led delivery plan due on 18th October, major emitters are no longer as shielded from pressure on their ambition and are now facing strong calls from climate vulnerable country groups. A high ambition G20 leaders’ communique will be a core dynamic to unlock BASICs support for a COP26 decision on 1.5C at the COP26 World Leaders’ Summit the following day. To secure the pivot from Rome to Glasgow, the UK, EU and US will need rapid strategic coordination on finance – on the $100bn target and adaptation finance to build trust with climate vulnerables, and coordinating comprehensive investment offers to facilitate confidence in the green transition across low and middle income countries.
Regardless of the outcome at COP26, 2021 has unlocked a new level of integration on climate action within top-tier geopolitical issues for world leaders. This is a foundation for further progress in 2022. Unlocking further investment in accelerating climate implementation can be a key focus of the German G7 Presidency and the Indonesian G20 Presidency, whilst core issues of adaptation, resilience and loss & damage – which have received insufficient attention throughout 2021 – can be progressed in the Egyptian COP27 Presidency.
