Les auteurs décrivent les objectifs des politiques climatiques chinoises tels que définis par le 12e plan quinquennal (2011-2015), et analysent les mesures mises en place dans ce cadre, notamment en termes de mesure de l'intensité carbone ; ils insistent enfin sur les transformations structurelles de l'économie chinoise nécessaires pour atteindre ces objectifs.
Points clés [en anglais] :
CHALLENGES OF THE XIth, XIIth and XIIIth FYP
The transition from the XIth to the XIIth Five-Year Plan (FYP) is a major breakthrough and requires a profound policy shift. Under the XIIth FYP, climate policies will have to combine the decarbonisation of the energy mix with the reduction of energy consumption per unit of output. And given the level of ambition of the XIIth FYP, to meet the high end of its UNFCCC pledge, China should increase its carbon intensity reduction target by 7% (from – 17 to – 24%) during the XIIIth FYP compared to the XIIth. Even reaching the low end of its UNFCCC pledge will require an equal level in its carbon intensity target during the XIIIth FYP compared to the XIIth (17%).
REGIONAL CARBON INTENSITY TARGET ALLOCATION
The allocation of carbon intensity targets by provinces in the XIIth FYP follows predominantly the principle of ability to pay. The structural factors play differently among provinces’ carbon intensity decrease. The design of carbon market pilots, but also the implementation of policies complementary to the carbon market, will have to reflect these differences.
STRENGTHENING THE MRV SYSTEM
The Chinese carbon accounting system needs to be more up to date and transparent. A strengthening of the Chinese carbon MRV system is indeed of key importance: both domestically, for the relevance of the design, the efficiency of the implementation and the accuracy of the assessment of climate-related policies; and internationally, in the context of the International Consultation and Analysis (ICA) process.
REBALANCING THE MACROECONOMIC DRIVERS FOR GROWTH
In spite of some real efforts to rebalance the economy, the macroeconomic drivers of GDP growth remained largely unchanged (export-led and public-investment-driven GDP growth) or even worsened (inequalities) during the XIth FYP. Unless new incentives are designed to encourage these shifts, it is unlikely that these economic and climate objectives will be met within the XIIth FYP.
