| 来源类型 | Journal Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| Prediction in a socio-hydrological world, | |
| Srinivasan, V., Sanderson, M., Garcia, M., Konar, M., Blöschl, G., and Sivapalan, M. | |
| 发表日期 | 2016 |
| 出处 | Hydrological Sciences Journal, pp. 1-8. |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Water resource management involves public investments with long-ranging impacts that traditional prediction approaches cannot address. These are increasingly being critiqued because (1) there is an absence of feedbacks between water and society; (2) the models are created by domain experts who hand them to decision makers to implement; and (3) they fail to account for global forces on local water resources. Socio-hydrological models that explicitly account for feedbacks between water and society at multiple scales and facilitate stakeholder participation can address these concerns. However, they require a fundamental change in how we think about prediction. We suggest that, in the context of long-range predictions, the goal is not scenarios that present a snapshot of the world at some future date, but rather projection of alternative, plausible and co-evolving trajectories of the socio-hydrological system. This will both yield insights into cause–effect relationships and help stakeholders identify safe or desirable operating space. |
| 主题 | Water, Land & ; Society |
| URL | https://www.atree.org/node/87 |
| 来源智库 | Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (India) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/86045 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Srinivasan, V., Sanderson, M., Garcia, M., Konar, M., Blöschl, G., and Sivapalan, M.. Prediction in a socio-hydrological world,. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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