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来源类型 | Articles |
规范类型 | 论文 |
DOI | 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.021 |
ISSN | 0040-1625 |
Testing a multi-scale scenario approach for smallholder tree plantations in Indonesia and Vietnam | |
van Noordwijk, M.; Agus, F.; Dewi, S.; Purnomo, H. | |
发表日期 | 2013 |
出处 | Technological Forecasting and Social Change 80(4): 762771 |
出版年 | 2013 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Smallholder tree plantations are seen as promising routes to alleviating poverty and increasing forest area among the countries in Southeast Asia. However, implementation has been disappointing, which led scientists at the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) to consider a scenario exercise as a way to mitigate the risk of unwanted outcomes. The study had a characteristic that it shares with many other studies: close interaction of larger-scale processes and trends (global markets, national policy) with smaller-scale systems (regional and local policy, farmer livelihoods). The authors therefore felt than an explicitly multi-scale approach was called for. To keep close to the well-known practice, we made a modest extension to a conventional scenario logic approach, and introduced a nested, and multi-scale scenario logic. While modest, we believe that the modification is useful, and the method could be used in other studies, in particular climate adaptation studies. We applied the method during two scenario workshops held to explore the use of smallholder tree plantations in efforts to improve rural livelihoods; each workshop considered two different localities. While the scenario frameworks resulting from the workshops were similar between the localities, we believe that the nested scenario framework served to structure the process and revealed meaningful contextual differences. From these experiences, we discuss and critique the method |
主题 | smallholders ; trade ; Multi-agent systems ; climatic change ; adaptation |
区域 | South East Asia |
URL | https://www.cifor.org/library/3970/ |
来源智库 | Center for International Forestry Research (Indonesia) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/92250 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van Noordwijk, M.,Agus, F.,Dewi, S.,et al. Testing a multi-scale scenario approach for smallholder tree plantations in Indonesia and Vietnam. 2013. |
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