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This dissertation proposes and applies three analytical tools and approaches to ex ante assessment of a potential PES project, conducting analyses at regional, project, and individual-level household productive systems levels. The project site analyzed was Cotriguaçu Sempre Verde (CSV), in Mato Grosso state, part of a REDD-like initiative concerned with decreasing deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions and increasing carbon stocks, while also positively influencing incomes and livelihoods of local producer groups. The initiative initially focused on supporting landowners to come into compliance with environmental regulations which encouraged them to adopt more sustainable production practices.

Conclusions were drawn based on the following aspects of PES: i) considering rural settlements in Cotriguaçu as a Social Ecological Systems (SES), what is the contribution of PES to the resilience of this systems; ii) satisfaction of preconditions established by Wunder for a PES initiative in the CSV context, and iii) impacts and feasibility of a hypothetical PES in a household livelihood system, using the Ethnographic Linear Program modeling tool.

Results showed that PES is not the most appropriate tool that should be used to decrease deforestation and forest degradation in this specific region. Three main reasons justifies this position: i) PES is not the right tool to improve rural settlers’ system resilience; ii) Cotriguaçu does not fit (at least yet) all the criteria to implement a PES initiative and; iii) If implemented in this municipality, PES will not improve livelihood systems and will not contribute to deforestation control. In order to be effective, improvement of command and control tools, and strengthening of government presence in those areas, should accompany PES.