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As international concern over tropical deforestation has grown over the last ten years,
researchers have sought to understand the causes of deforestation and possible
solutions using quantitative economic models. This book reviews the results and
methodology of over 150 of these models and synthesizes the main lessons that can
be learned from them. Higher agricultural prices, lower wages, less off-farm
employment, and more roads generally lead to more deforestation. Major doubts
remain on the impact of technological change, agricultural input prices, household
incomes, and tenure security. The role of macro level factors such as population
growth, poverty reduction, national income levels, economic growth and foreign debt is
still largely uncertain. While the boom in deforestation modeling has yielded new
insights, many model results should be regarded with caution because of poor data
quality and methodological weaknesses. In particular, the book finds most multi
country regression models to be of limited value. It recommends a shift in future
research towards household and regional level studies, instead of the current emphasis
on national and multi-country studies.